Aviation Expert Says Flight Data Points to Engine Failure

Advertisement

NASSAU, BAHAMAS – As investigators continue working to determine what caused the deadly independence day plane crash in North Andros, one experienced pilot says his review of public flight data does not point to pilot error.

Paul Aranah – Professional Pilot

“ When you look at a pilot have that type of operating history, operating within that type of bound. I believe what you’ll find is that likely the left engine failed, just based on how we can see the data, which would be the critical engine on the 402.”

Aranah is a professional pilot and the Owner and President of Trans Island Airways.

His conclusions he says, come from his review of the public flight data – the aircraft’s previous trips between Nassau and San Andros.

He compared the last twenty flights, looking for anything that stood out.

Using a graph, grey lines show the pilot’s previous approaches, while the red line shows the accident flight.

Paul Aranah – Professional Pilot

“ I was quite impressed by how consistent he was flying the same flight over and over and over again. So regardless of anything else that’s said about him, I would comment that he’s actually pretty consistent.”

The turns seem very structured, and that sort of gives me a little bit more confidence in saying what I’m about to say, and removing it from a pilot error perspective.”

However, Aranah says the accident flight looked noticeably different.

The red line on the graph shows the aircraft making a shorter approach, turning toward the runway earlier than it did, on most of the previous flights.

Another graph tracked the aircraft’s speed also shows a sharp difference.

While the other flights showed a gradual and consistent reduction in speed, the accident flight showed a much steeper drop, as the aircraft approached the runway.

The Aircraft Accident Investigation Authority (AAIA) has already revealed that the landing gear and flaps were extended, suggesting the aircraft was configured to land.

Aranah says if an engine failed at that point, the pilot would have been low to the ground, with the aircraft already producing what’s called “significant drag.”

Paul Aranah – Professional Pilot

“ We don’t know how much baggage or luggage or equipment, but because it was a band, we can infer that it was probably a lot. And it was in a very high workload period. I believe someone said that the accident was a 100% preventable. I would actually say statistically that’s not a accurate statement.”

“Even some of the best pilots, when faced with that situation at that altitude, with those outside conditions in an airplane that’s certified under part 23, there are gonna be moments where that’s not recoverable.”

Aranah says the data cannot confirm exactly what happened inside the cockpit, and he acknowledges that only the official investigation can determine the real cause of this crash.

However, if investigators find that an engine did fail, he says attention will likely turn to the aircraft’s maintenance history.

Paul Aranah – Professional Pilot

“A commercial operator is supposed to have an aircraft maintenance program that’s approved by the Authority that’s based on the aircraft manufacturer’s maintenance manual, and the tasks that are included in that. Was this airplane following that? As an aging airplane?”

As recently as Tuesday the Aircraft Accident Investigation Authority admitted there is still a lot more investigation and analysis needed to determine what led to this deadly crash.